Forecast: Price of Glyphosate to Remain Low in China
Guangzhou, China, January 18, 2016 (Newswire.com) - China’s glyphosate market will still be in the doldrums in 2016 due to the overcapacity in the industry and the spread of negative news on glyphosate. The market price is predicted to be low and even reach the bottom, according to analysts CCM.
The current glyphosate TC price is at about USD2,780/t (RMB18,250/t) after suffering few slight fluctuations in 2015. It is expected that, the glyphosate price will slightly rise temporarily, with the approaching of the busy season for formulation processing enterprises (off-season storage).
However, it is only temporary for the price to rise.
“Since H2 2014, the company has received few orders of glyphosate” stated, Mr. Song, a highly experienced manager in glyphosate exports in Shanghai.
“At present, some companies continue to sell at low prices. Prices of glyphosate are likely to decline further, and some medium- and small-sized enterprises have already been unprofitable” Mr. Song said.
The glyphosate market stuck in its serious overcapacity
The serious overcapacity of glyphosate in China burdens the whole industry, especially when there is no enough demand from the downstream market.
In 2012 and 2013, China’s glyphosate industry performed very well. The glyphosate price kept rising, even reaching USD6,252.64/t (RMB40,000/t), which looked extremely attractive to the manufactures.
What came next? The high profits triggered new capacity expansions. Large enterprises entered into the glyphosate industry, which had caused the current serious overcapacity.
For example, large enterprises like Sichuan Fuhua Tongda Agrochemical had increased 50,000t/a in the glyphosate capacity in 2013. Jiangsu Good Harvest-Weien Agrochemical increased 15,000t/a. Henan HDF Chemical Co., Ltd also increased 15,000t/a in the capacity.
Till now, it is estimated that the existing idle capacities, newly-expanded capacities and the capacities that are planned to construct of glyphosate would total about 800,000 t/a, according to CCM.
Glyphosate, as an export-oriented product in China, the export volume is only at around 400,000 tonnes in 2014 and 2015 while the domestic consumption is less than 60,000 tonnes. This means that nearly half of the capacity is idle.
Besides, most of the competing enterprises, owning large capacities, are unwilling to reduce their capacities. This exacerbates the overcapacity within the industry.
“It is difficult for the glyphosate price to greatly increase in the short term because the insufficient demand cannot keep pace with the capacity expansion of glyphosate” stated Xing Yi, Editor of Glyphosate China Monthly Report.
“The price of glyphosate TC will only fluctuate at low levels” Xing added.
Negative news on glyphosate makes it even worse
Negative information around the word that glyphosate threatens human health will intensify the decline of the glyphosate market.
Since 2015, the safety of glyphosate is kept being questioned in the world. In March 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, an agency affiliated to the World Health Organization, concluded that glyphosate may cause cancer to humans, which aroused a big sensation globally.
Followed by the Environmental Department of California, in Sep, 2015, it announced to include glyphosate in the list of carcinogens. It considered that glyphosate is harmful to human health and is related to the sharply declining numbers of monarch butterflies.
Actually, earlier in June, in Sri Lanka, in order to protect farmers’ health and interests, Maithripala Sirisena, President of Sri Lanka, announced to ban the import and sales of glyphosate including the sales of products that had already been imported.
He believed that the rapid increasing number of kidney patients’ in Sri Lanka is associated to the application of glyphosate. That’s why the government decided to ban the import of glyphosate.
“Glyphosate is facing very significant challenges. If other countries follow the move of Sri Lanka, it will be a disaster for the glyphosate industry” commented Wang Jianwo, Secretary-General of Hunan Pesticide Industry Association.
Glyphosate residue can be found in 90% of soybeans since glyphosate has been used in large quantities for many years, according to Wang. Current researches also indicate that being exposed to low doses of glyphosate for a long time can damage the human liver and kidney.
Thus, the glyphosate residue in genetically modified crops and its potential to cause harm to human health is the information that severely damages the future prospects of glyphosate.
In Nov. 2015, good news came for the glyphosate.
The European Food Safety Agency and the member countries of the European Union (EU) have completed the reappraisal on glyphosate. They released a report to show that glyphosate is unlikely to cause cancer to humans. At the same time, they put forward some new safety measures to control the glyphosate residue in food.
This conclusion will be an important reference for the EU committee to decide whether to approve the application of glyphosate. The member countries of the EU will also reappraise the safety of glyphosate based on this conclusion.
However, with such beneficial news, the glyphosate market in China still performs poorly in its exporting.
In China, glyphosate TC enterprises are finding it difficult to resume production at large scales because of the poor demand from downstream markets. Also, the summer overhaul period has just passed.
“If the transaction price declines further, it is very likely that it will drop below the costs of production” said Wang.
“Judging from the present market, if purchasers still hold a wait-and-see attitude, the transaction price of glyphosate TC will struggle to rise” he added.
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About CCM:
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & ingredients and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of data and content solutions, from price and trade data to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. Our clients include Monsanto, DuPont, Shell, Bayer, and Syngenta. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.
