AAPOR Publishes Resources and Guidance on 2024 Pre-Election Polling

ALEXANDRIA, Va., October 25, 2024 (Newswire.com) - The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) believes in the value and power of public opinion polling as a way to elevate the cares and concerns of the American public. Valid and transparent data about the behaviors, attitudes and characteristics of American voters gathered through sound public opinion research helps to tell the story of this historic election. As election day 2024 approaches, AAPOR, the leading association of public opinion and survey research professionals, offers guidance and resources to help reporters, voters and others to understand pre-election polling in the closing days of this election.

1. Transparency about how a survey was conducted is the single best indicator of an organization trying to do high-quality research. Members of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative (TI) (info here) have committed to disclosure of a range of key methodological indicators. We encourage poll consumers to look for transparency and membership in AAPOR’s TI in assessing a poll’s validity. 
2. Consumers and users of election polls should recognize the limits of polling. All polls are subject to statistical error due to sampling and other factors. Plus, election polls are attempting to measure how and if people are going to vote before the election happens. All of this is in a time of rapid change in how people communicate, making reaching people ever more difficult. In this context, poll consumers should understand that polls can paint an approximate picture of where things stand now, but are not predictive, and given the margin of sampling error, may not be able to tell you who is ahead in a very close election.
3. With vote counting a process that routinely takes several weeks in some key states, it is critical to wait until all counting of votes is complete before making judgments about poll accuracy.
4. AAPOR has created a reference for frequently asked questions; please visit our 2024 election FAQ here. 
5. Regardless of the outcome of the election, AAPOR will again be conducting a thorough post-election investigation of poll accuracy as was done after the 2020 election (report) and the 2016 election (report). The committee drafting the 2024 election report consists of experts from academia, media, political polling firms and major survey research organizations, each drawing on their unique backgrounds to review the performance of polling in the 2024 election. The committee’s work is already underway, and AAPOR expects its final report to be completed and available to the media and the public in mid-2025.

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The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is the leading professional organization of public opinion and survey research professionals in the U.S. AAPOR members embrace the principle that public opinion research is essential to a healthy democracy, providing information crucial to informed policymaking and giving voice to the nation's beliefs, attitudes, and desires. It promotes a better public understanding of this role and the sound and ethical conduct and use of public opinion research. 

Source: American Association for Public Opinion Research